There has been no better time since the mid-nineties (and perhaps not even then) to be a student studying China. There are several reasons why we should pay special attention to China this year such as the recent defeat of the Democratic Progressive Party by the Kuomintang in Taiwan’s parliamentary elections, China’s involvement with the international community in Sudan, and the interesting evolution of China’s censorship policies concerning the internet.
Without a doubt, though, the most important event in China this year will be the Beijing Olympics, a fact that is not lost on anyone in the emergent power. China’s influence has steadily been on the rise since it opened up its economy, but most of its gains have been reliant on the nation’s sheer immensity. Its economy, for example, is one of the world’s most significant, but only because it is large, not because it is efficient. China, though certainly a major player in international politics, is still viewed by much of the world as a sort of unsophisticated junior partner, a developing country that has made great strides forward but still suffers from widespread poverty and lingers in outdated authoritarian political practices that stifle innovation and creativity.
These very real problems have allowed many citizens of other powerful nations to ignore China as being outside the US and EU dominated sphere of the modern developed world, which also includes Japanese economic and Russian military power. In many ways, this “blind-eye” has been convenient for the Chinese Communist Party, allowing it to continue its corruption, nepotism, censorship, and rigid control of the political system.
For better or worse, the Beijing Olympics will end this situation. If China can successfully host the games without incident, then they will herald the nation’s ascendancy to top-tier world-power status. A recent article in the Economist, “The challenge to Beijingoism,” discussed in some detail what the Olympics mean to China. The article proposes that China appears to be materially ready to host the games: the stadium and new airport are on schedule to be finished on time, for example. However, the article continues, the increased attention will mean that some of China’s less-attractive aspects will be exposed to greater criticism, including the possibility of both international and domestic protests.
The last time the world watched the Chinese political authorities deal with heavy criticism was during the 1989 Tiananmen Square demonstrations, which were violently suppressed with military force. The outcome of that situation almost twenty years ago still informs the impression that many in the Western world have of the social situation in China. This year’s Olympic Games promise to have an equally strong impression on world opinion. Whether that impression is on balance positive or negative depends in large part on how the authorities handle political dissent.
"The challenge to Beijingoism." Economist.com 16 Dec 2007. 17 Jan 2008.
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4 comments:
Interesting comparison between the 1989 incident in Tiananmen Square and the upcoming Olympic Games. It's an obvious comparison, but one I had not considered until I read your post.
Nice think piece, John. As I think about the upcoming Olympics, I remember the problems that Greece went through trying to prepare and get everything done on time, the changes they made for the sake of appearances, and of course the increased security since the fear of terrorism was heightened after 9/11. It'll be interesting to compare the preparations.
As you mentioned, the rest of the world basically looks at China as a "junior partner," so pulling the Olympics off without a hitch is particularly important to them. When the Internet ticket system crashed in November because of the heavy demand (http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/139194/chinas_olympic_ticketing_system_launches_crashes.html - sorry, I don't know how to make hotlinks in a comment), it was something all sorts of governments, companies and nonprofits in the West have experienced. However, I think the Chinese were afraid the world would look at the technical failure as a reflection on their ability to operate in the modern world.
You know John, when you shine a flashlight on something in the dark, the light does not discriminate about what it shows up. It will show up the good, the bad, the ugly and the pretty. The Olympics will indeed be such a light, but I do not know how far to carry the comparison. It is the media that directs the beam. I was struck by the bold pronouncement that for beter or worse China will be a senior and not a junior partner from now on. I suppose that is basically true. I don't really doubt it, but it raises a great many questions, not only in regard to the extent that this is true but in regard to where that will lead. It will be something to watch - quite apart from the athletes. I'm not sure a harmonious Olympics is a cure-all, although of course such a harmonious outcome is what to hope for both for their sake and everyone elses. Steve
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